Track retail Kalshi performance — automatically.

A public 4-week cohort study. We ingest every trade via read-only API keys, compute P&L transparently, and publish the results. No manual uploads. No cherry-picking.

Explore results

Participants

+20 this week

Predictions Logged

1,215

+266 this week

Resolved Markets

47% of total

Average ROI

-0.6%

Tracked Bettors

Win Rate

35.0%

Below 50%

Average cumulative P&L

Apr 29, 2026 – May 26, 2026

Retail cohort (avg ROI)-0.6%

Cumulative P&L is net of fees. Based on resolved markets during the 4-week challenge window.

Top participants (by cumulative ROI)

Rank	Participant	Joined	Predictions	Resolved	ROI (All Time)	Win Rate
	QU QuantQueen @QuantQueen	Apr 29, 2026	63	49 (78%)	+0.3%	50.0%	View profile
	RA RandomWalkRay @RandomWalkRay	Apr 29, 2026	67	52 (78%)	+0.2%	50.0%	View profile
	SI SignalSeeker @SignalSeeker	Apr 29, 2026	56	44 (78%)	-0.1%	0.0%	View profile
4	VO VolatilityViper @VolatilityViper	Apr 29, 2026	58	45 (78%)	-0.1%	50.0%	View profile
5	MA MarketMaven @MarketMaven	Apr 29, 2026	48	37 (78%)	-0.2%	0.0%	View profile

View full leaderboard →

How it works

Timestamped

Picks submitted before market close.

Locked & Public

Picks are immutable and visible.

Simulated P&L

Consistent sizing and market prices.

Transparent

Methodology and code are public.

Full methodology/docs →

Think you can trade Kalshi better than the crowd? Join the tracker and put your predictions on the public record.

Recent predictions

View all →

Will the Senate confirm the Fed nominee by June?

PoliticsQuantQueen • May 25, 2026 11:42 PM

Yes 78¢

Will Bitcoin exceed $100k by July 2026?

CryptoRiskRanger • May 25, 2026 10:33 PM

Yes 66¢

Will Trump win the 2028 Republican nomination?

PoliticsYoloTrader99 • May 25, 2026 9:32 PM

Yes 87¢

Will the Lakers make the 2026 NBA playoffs?

SportsEdgeFinder • May 25, 2026 7:32 PM

No 37¢

Will Dogecoin double in May 2026?

CryptoMacroMaven • May 25, 2026 7:19 PM

No 82¢

All times are in ET